Guinea Bissau: Guinea-Bissau Constitutional Referendum - an Explainer

On August 30, 2026, a constitutional referendum organized by the military junta in Guinea-Bissau aims to consolidate power within the executive branch and reverse power-sharing efforts. This move follows a military coup led by General Horta Inta-A Na Man on November 26, 2025, which has deepened the country's history of political instability. The referendum is part of a transition process outlined by the junta, leading to planned elections in December 2026.

The proposed constitution would concentrate power within the president's office, replacing the semi-presidential system currently in place. This system, adopted in 1993, shared power between the president and the prime minister, with the latter being elected by the national parliament. Under the proposed changes, the number of parliamentary seats and districts would be reduced, increasing the financial and membership requirements for election candidates.

Guinea-Bissau has long sought to avoid the overconcentration of power in the presidency, a goal that led to the semi-presidential system's adoption. However, former President Umaro Sissoco Embalão, a former military general, resisted these reforms, dissolving parliament multiple times and creating a shadow cabinet of presidential advisors. Critics fear the referendum and upcoming elections may aim to restore Embalão to power, further entangling the presidency and military.

Despite Guinea-Bissau's history of political instability, the country has a track record of competitive elections and power alternations, largely due to the professional composition of the National Electoral Commission (NEC). However, the military junta has replaced NEC leadership and created a new secretariat, actions deemed illegal by critics.

This move, along with the replacement of the Superior Military Court leadership, highlights ongoing concerns about political oversight and civil-military relations in Guinea-Bissau.