Driving data can predict crash black spots before accidents happen
An analysis of data collected from hundreds of thousands of cars in Australia offers an insight into driving behaviour that can be used to identify sections of road where crashes may occur in the future
Authorities can anticipate potentially hazardous locations by examining data on drivers frequently swerving and braking, enabling them to take preventive action before accidents transpire. Simona Mihaita, a researcher at the University of Technology Sydney in Australia, contends that near-miss data signifies an impending crash in the vicinity.
The team scrutinized harsh braking and swerving data gleaned from 700,000 vehicles in New South Wales from April 2020 to December 2021, collected by the data platform Compass IoT. The data encompassed incidents of abrupt vehicle movements, abrupt maneuvers, near misses, collisions, or excessive g-force events. Mihaita posits that the cumulative near misses signify hazardous driving behavior that escalates until rescue teams must be deployed, or collisions or crashes ensue.
The investigation centered on southeast Australia, yet the researchers believe identifying danger zones before crashes should be a worldwide concern. In New South Wales, there were approximately 1,000 near-miss incidents daily, peaking at 2,000. The most perilous areas for near-misses were within the Greater Sydney region, recording over 40,000 incidents, with Parramatta, west of Sydney, exceeding 45,000.
Overlaying these incidents on known accident hotspots revealed a strong correlation, yet many locations where frequent near misses occur remain unrecognized by authorities as risky. Mihaita asserts that numerous safe areas are disregarded by authorities. Instead of reacting post-collision, she suggests authorities proactively intervene in high-risk areas by lowering speed limits, enhancing infrastructure, or intensifying monitoring and law enforcement.
The incidence of near misses across Australia continues to surge, reaching nearly 200,000 in 2025, while Australian road fatalities surged to 1,337, the highest in 12 years. Critics caution that data on near misses might not reliably predict actual crashes, necessitating further validation to substantiate the connection. Nevertheless, near-miss data could serve as an early warning signal for road safety issues, complementing conventional crash data.
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