AI model predicts indwelling catheter conversion in early neurogenic bladder

A novel prognostic stratification model has been developed to predict indwelling catheter conversion (ICC) in patients with early-stage spinal cord injury (SCI) and neurogenic bladder (NB). The study, published in Neurourology and Urodynamics on August 23, 2026, analyzed 135 patients admitted between November 2017 and January 2026.

The five-variable Random Survival Forest (RSF) model demonstrated strong discriminative performance, with a validation C-index of 0.8742 and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.9352, 0.8834, and 0.8803 at three, six, and 12 months, respectively. The model identified five predictors, including H-reflex, lower extremity motor score, urinary tract infection, time from lesion to rehabilitation facility, and spinal cord independence measure bladder score.

Patients were stratified into three prognostic groups: favorable, intermediate, and unfavorable, with three-month cumulative ICC incidence rates of 97.30%, 50.23%, and 2.22%, respectively. The tool could support personalized bladder management strategies by implementing specific prognosis-stratified clinical pathways.

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