A importação de aço chinês está caindo? “Mito”, diz este analista
As importações de aço estão finalmente caindo no Brasil, depois de anos tirando o sono das siderúrgicas locais. Quer dizer, não é bem assim. Um relatório publicado pelo Bradesco BBI está desafiando essa leitura – afirmando que, quando se olha para o aço que chega ao País dentro de carros, máquinas e autopeças, a penetração […] The post A importação de aço chinês está caindo? “Mito”, diz este…
The importation of Chinese steel is not falling in Brazil, contrary to a misconception, according to an analyst. A report by Bradesco BBI challenges this view, stating that when considering steel arriving in Brazil through cars, machines, and auto parts, the penetration of imports is actually reaching a record. Direct imports of steel experienced a significant decrease of 21% in the first seven months of the year, to 3.3 million tons.
The government's measures, including anti-dumping actions and reduced import quotas, contributed to this reduction. However, Chinese steel found another entry point. The volume of steel contained in manufactured products imported increased by 19%, reaching 4.2 million tons, surpassing direct imports. Two-thirds of this growth came from the automotive sector, with imports of steel contained in cars and commercial vehicles surging by 69%.
Including both import forms, Bradesco BBI estimates that foreign steel will account for 40.4% of Brazil's demand this year – a record. In 2016, it was 27%. While direct imports fell, Brazilian steel mills hardly benefited, recovering only 6,000 tons from the 851,000 tons of steel no longer entering directly. Meanwhile, indirect imports grew by 678,000 tons.
The analyst suggests that this could change if the industry continues its pressure for protection. The government protected the steel sector but neglected machinery, auto parts, and automobiles. "The steel is being imported inside the finished product," says Rafael. This scenario also explains why Bradesco BBI remains cautious about Brazilian steel mills.
With high stocks, weak demand, and increasing indirect imports, the company sees little room for significant price adjustments in the coming months and does not rule out further price drops if demand declines. Bradesco BBI recommends an "outperform" rating for Ternium, while Gerdau, CSN, and Usiminas are rated "neutral."
Written by urgent.news from Brazil Journal's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
