US diesel supplies hit record low as demand deason looms

U.S. supplies of diesel fuel have plummeted to an all-time low, potentially causing prices to soar as the demand for the fuel increases ahead of the heating and agricultural seasons. According to the latest figures from the Energy Information Administration, distillate fuel oil stocks – which includes diesel – were at a historic low of 103.4 million barrels as of August 21. Such a low level of stockpiles during this time of year has never been recorded since the early 1980s.

As global diesel demand typically surges around October due to the onset of winter heating season and Northern Hemisphere harvests coinciding with Southern Hemisphere planting season, the scarcity of supply could exacerbate price hikes and contribute to energy-induced inflation. The ongoing conflict in Iran has further unsettled energy markets, though crude exports have remained more steady than refined products. However, exports of refined fuels through the Strait of Hormuz have dwindled to almost nil.

Compounding the issue is Russia's suspension of diesel exports in response to Ukrainian drone attacks on its refineries. Moscow is contemplating extending the ban for another month, further tightening the supply for trade partners. Currently, retail diesel prices in the U.S. are above $5.60 per gallon, close to the all-time record set in 2022, while gasoline prices remain stubbornly above $4 a gallon.

U.S. refiners have reported record margins for producing diesel, reflecting the high global demand for U.S.-produced fuel. U.S. exports of the fuel have also hit extraordinarily high levels, yet they are insufficient to compensate for the loss of product.