UNCTAD: AI-driven Automation May Affect 40% of Global Jobs as Market Hits $4.8tn by 2033

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has forecasted that the global Artificial Intelligence (AI) market could reach $4.8 trillion by 2033, but this growth may come at a cost. The report, titled "Ensuring AI Benefits Everyone Is Key to Development in the Global South," warns that up to 40% of jobs worldwide could be impacted by AI-driven automation, eroding the low-cost labor advantage that many developing economies rely on for economic growth and poverty reduction.

UNCTAD, an intergovernmental body established by the United Nations General Assembly in 1964, emphasizes the importance of preventing AI from widening existing development gaps in the Global South. The organization's report highlights that while the global AI market is projected to grow 25-fold in just 10 years, approximately 65% of people in least developed countries remain offline, rendering the technology inaccessible from the start.

The report points out that 118 countries, predominantly in the Global South, are absent from major AI governance platforms. This absence means that norms on safety, transparency, and accountability are being established without their input. The organization stresses that these are not merely technical gaps but have human development implications, affecting livelihoods, public services, and countries' capacities to meet their citizens' needs.

However, the report acknowledges that AI is already influencing everyday life. For instance, AI-powered mobile apps assist rural health workers in interpreting symptoms when doctors are scarce, while adaptive learning platforms personalize lessons for students in under-resourced schools. In climate-vulnerable regions, AI models predict floods, droughts, and crop failures, providing communities with time to prepare.

The report emphasizes that the benefits of AI are not evenly distributed, with a small group of economies and approximately 100 firms controlling the majority of AI research, patents, and computing power. Fewer than one-third of developing countries have a national AI strategy, with only 12% of least developed countries having such a strategy.

The organization underscores that AI can yield the greatest human development impact in areas like agriculture, primary healthcare, disaster management, and public administration, but success depends on three interdependent factors: infrastructure such as electricity, broadband, and computing; locally relevant data; and workforce skills.

To maximize AI's potential, UNCTAD recommends a realistic entry point for developing countries: adapting existing or open-source models to local conditions instead of building proprietary systems. The organization also advocates for global cooperation to steer AI towards shared goals and values, proposing a public disclosure mechanism for AI similar to the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) framework.

This could enhance accountability and transform global commitments into tangible outcomes. Additionally, the report recommends open data and open-source models to broaden access to knowledge and resources, fostering inclusive AI innovation, and emphasizes the importance of coordinating fragmented open-source AI resources to promote global collaboration.