Sudan: Sudan War - a Conflict Sustained By Weapons, Fragmentation, and Diplomatic Inertia

The conflict in Sudan, now in its fourth year, has become increasingly difficult to halt, according to Rosemary DiCarlo, the UN's Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs. In a briefing to the Security Council, DiCarlo warned that the war is spreading across multiple fronts, becoming more advanced, and involving a complex mix of armed groups and external parties.

The human toll is immense, with 13 million Sudanese displaced from their homes, including 8.7 million internally. The UN has documented around 1,400 civilian deaths between January and June, with over 1,100 attributed to drone strikes, though the actual death toll may be in the hundreds of thousands. DiCarlo highlighted brutal mass killings, abductions, and mass rapes as recurring patterns.

The fighting has intensified geographically, with drone attacks and ground combat concentrated in North Kordofan, West Darfur, North Darfur, and Blue Nile. In El Obeid, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) vie for strategic territory, while clashes near Sudan's borders with Chad and Ethiopia risk regional escalation.

The sophistication of the war is evident in the use of advanced weaponry, indicating external support to both sides. However, the proliferation of local militias and other armed groups is fragmenting the battlefield, complicating a ceasefire and political settlement. Diplomacy efforts, including a UN-supported humanitarian truce and talks in Addis Ababa, have yet to sway the combatants' calculations.

The central obstacle remains their military mindset, with both sides believing victory on the battlefield is preferable to compromise. External actors must push the parties towards negotiations, but the Sudanese people cannot wait any longer for a resolution.