Six months into the Iran war, Hormuz is still a chokepoint under siege — and uncertainty grips energy markets

Six months after the United States and Israel began their conflict against Iran, the war has transformed into a struggle over energy, shipping, and economic pressure. Originally launched on February 28, 2026, the campaign of airstrikes evolved into a critical battlefield over the Strait of Hormuz, which has become nearly shut off.

Despite this, the waterway remains a crucial artery for global energy supplies, but commercial traffic has plummeted, averaging less than 20 commodity vessels crossing the strait in the weekend of August 22-23, down from over 95 daily crossings pre-war.

The narrow, strategically exposed, and difficult-to-bypass strait, approximately 39 km wide at its narrowest point, has seen a significant drop in traffic. Iran's coercive measures, such as blacklisting 45 tankers, have further complicated matters, challenging the traditional international maritime regime. The human cost is also evident, with over 6,000 seafarers stranded in the region, and several deaths reported among seafarers and dockworkers.

The situation has evolved into a dangerous constraint on the world's most important energy chokepoint. Ships are now using multiple routes, with one running closer to Iran's coast and another closer to Oman. Around 90% of traffic has become "dark," or unidentified, making it difficult to track ships moving through the strait. This development raises concerns about the increasing unpredictability and potential risks associated with commercial shipping in a war zone.