Ofer Winter's new party threatens Smotrich's survival - and the Netanyahu bloc

As the Likud party, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, assesses the potential outcomes should neither bloc secure 61 seats in the upcoming election, the scenario of a broad government with a rotation between Netanyahu and Yesh Atid party head Gadi Eisenkot is under serious consideration. This option, while speculative, aims to prevent another election and ensure a stable government.

While Likud officials are focused on discussing the details of a rotation agreement, the main concern is how Netanyahu would convince Eisenkot to commit to a rotation government, similar to the Netanyahu-Benny Gantz agreement in 2020. To address this, discussions suggest offering Netanyahu a future role in the presidency or an agreed political exit path, with the ultimate goal of ensuring Eisenkot's trust and guaranteeing the premiership would eventually pass to him.

The unique challenge, however, is the lingering mistrust created by the 2020 rotation government with Gantz. To overcome this, more practical mechanisms, such as commitments regarding the budget, no-confidence votes, legal safeguards, and even a resignation deposit with a trustee, are being explored. These measures would help ensure Netanyahu's commitment to the agreement and prevent potential breaches that could destabilize the government.

Netanyahu's rhetoric has emphasized the need for a "broad government," but the reality of a 61-seat majority remains uncertain. In such a case, Netanyahu could argue that voters did not provide a clear mandate to any side, justifying the inclusion of figures from the opposing camp in the government. However, overcoming the precedent of the Gantz-Netanyahu rotation government will require robust guarantees to maintain trust and stability.