Landtagswahl: CDU in Sachsen-Anhalt fällt in Umfrage weiter zurück

Two weeks before the Landtag election in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD continues to lead significantly ahead of the CDU, according to the new Infratest Dimap trend for the state. The AfD now has 42 percent, up by one percentage point since the end of July. The CDU, led by Prime Minister Sven Schulze, falls further behind, securing 22 percent – two percentage points less than in July.

The CDU, under former Prime Minister Reiner Haseloff, had previously achieved 37.1 percent in the 2021 election, with the AfD at 20.8 percent. This data heightens pressure on the CDU and could reignite debates about its relationship with the AfD. Earlier this week, CDU municipal politician Bernd Prange, mayor of the town of Altmärkische Höhe and district assembly member in Stendal, donated 10,000 euros to the AfD and announced his intention to vote for them in the Landtag election.

A clear majority of the AfD might persuade the CDU to abandon its "branding wall," in his view. Prime Minister Schulze criticized the donation, but also ruled out cooperation with the AfD, which is deemed right-wing extremist by the state's constitutional court. The left, SPD, and Greens would be represented in the Landtag, according to the survey, with the left at 11 percent, down by two points, the SPD up by one point to eight percent, and the Greens improving by one point to six percent, returning to the Landtag.

The BSW and the FDP would fail to clear the five-percent hurdle. Despite their high share of votes, the AfD would not have a majority in the new Landtag, as the SPD and Greens would secure seats. The survey result is a setback for AfD leader Ulrich Siegmund, who aimed to govern alone. However, even slight changes in percentages could shift the power dynamics.

If the SPD or Greens fail to cross the five-percent threshold, the share of non-represented votes would increase, potentially allowing the AfD to secure a majority with less than 50 percent of the votes cast. The AfD's relationship with the left remains uncertain, as a CDU-led government would likely need at least indirect support from the left, with whom the CDU has previously excluded cooperation.

While 47 percent of CDU supporters support or oppose such cooperation, this could lead to a fundamental debate within the CDU about its relationship with the left. In a hypothetical direct election for Prime Minister, Schulze is narrowly ahead of Siegmund, with 41 percent of respondents favoring him and 39 percent backing Siegmund.