How James Talarico Polls Compare to Beto O'Rourke in 2018
Former teacher polls better than the ex-U.S. Representative did almost a decade ago, but the Texas race remains too close to call.
James Talarico, a Texas Democrat running for U.S. Senate, is currently outpacing Beto O'Rourke's late 2018 polling numbers in recent surveys. This matters as O'Rourke narrowly lost to Republican Ted Cruz, while Talarico has led multiple recent polls. Texas hasn't elected a U.S. Senator since 1988, so O'Rourke's near miss is a benchmark for the party's statewide competitiveness.
Talarico, a 37-year-old state representative and former Presbyterian seminarian, leads gubernatorial candidate Ken Paxton by 3 points in the latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey, 42% to 39%. However, the lead is within the survey's margin of error, leaving the race uncertain. Another Emerson College poll from August found Paxton leading Talarico by 1 point, but with more uncertainty.
Age is a key factor, with voters under 50 favoring Talarico and those over 50 supporting Paxton. In 2018, O'Rourke's final polling advantage was outpaced by Cruz's actual victory. RealClearPolitics' average placed Cruz ahead by 6.8 points in the 2018 race. Talarico has posted leads in multiple 2022 surveys, with RealClearPolling's average showing him ahead by 1.7 points.
However, prediction markets price the race as a toss-up, with each candidate having a 50% chance of winning. Silver's FLIPR model gives Talarico a 59-61% chance of victory, but cautions that Texas' recent Republican dominance may distort expectations.
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