Five ways the US-Iran conflict is shifting - analysis

The United States and Iran are experiencing a significant shift in their ongoing conflict. While the initial focus was heavily on airstrikes, the current phase involves a broader array of strategies including economic pressure, maritime security, diplomacy, and power dynamics. This new phase is indicative of a shifting global order.

The Trump administration's approach emphasizes economic isolation of Iran, rather than outright military action. President Trump's announcement of the removal of naval mines from the Strait of Hormuz is a clear indicator of this shift. This demonstrates Washington's commitment to ensuring freedom of navigation, a long-standing policy dating back to the Woodrow Wilson administration.

The mines were removed and detonated, with a warning that any additional attempts to lay mines would result in "immediate and systematic destruction". This action is primarily aimed at removing Iran's leverage and reassuring global energy markets that international shipping can continue unhindered.

Economic pressure has become the primary tool of US strategy in this conflict. The Treasury Department has launched Operation Economic Outcast, an unprecedented campaign to financially isolate Iran. This includes mapping Iran's financial networks, oil smuggling operations, and funding channels tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The goal is to sever all remaining economic lifelines supporting the regime. Unlike previous sanctions campaigns, this is an open-ended global effort, rather than individual sanctions packages. The US also frames this campaign as a choice for third-world countries: align with the United States or face economic isolation alongside Iran.

China's involvement and perspective in this conflict is gaining prominence. China has criticized the new sanctions, arguing that they will only further intensify tensions and disrupt legitimate cooperation with Iran. China has a 25-year economic deal with Iran, and benefits from the US being preoccupied with its conflict against Iran. This reflects a broader geopolitical competition among major powers, as the global order is shifting to accommodate these conflicts.

Iran, in turn, is responding to economic pressure through what it terms as asymmetric means. These include cyberattacks, threats by Iranian-backed proxy groups, maritime attacks, and efforts to disrupt regional energy infrastructure. The effectiveness of the US's economic campaign may depend not only on American enforcement, but also on whether China and Russia decide to reduce their engagement with Iran.

Despite the escalating conflict, regional diplomacy has not yet evaporated. On August 25, Oman and Iran issued a joint statement following a telephone call between their leaders.