Europe's obsession with return hubs may not live up to the hype

Ukrainian refugees in Europe have a 3% chance of returning home, according to parliamentary Committee on Finance, Tax, and Customs Policy Chair Danylo Hetmantsev. While 49% of the 5.2 million refugees residing in Europe plan to return eventually, only a fraction possess concrete repatriation plans. Another 46% hope to return at an unspecified point, 28% remain undecided, and 23% no longer expect to return.

The proportion of those planning to return has dropped from 61% in early 2024 to 49% in the latest period, while the percentage ruling out return has increased from 12% to 23%. As the war continues, Ukrainians are integrating into host countries, securing employment, housing, and education for their children. However, 65% believe a return would be possible if the war ends and Ukraine regains control over its occupied territories.

Hetmantsev emphasized that the state cannot force citizens to return but must create a domestic socioeconomic environment that makes repatriation viable and attractive. Key factors include a transparent system protecting property rights, providing asset compensation, repairing and reconstructing residential areas, offering preferential mortgage financing and affordable rental housing, ensuring reliable data on local security, employment, schooling, and housing, creating jobs tied to infrastructure reconstruction, and offering vocational retraining and upskilling programs.

Ultimately, the state's success will be measured by whether returning families have safe housing, stable income, and access to essential services within one or two years.