아이슬란드, ‘EU 가입협상 재개’ 국민투표…여론조사 찬반 팽팽

Iceland plans to hold a national referendum on 29th to decide whether to reopen negotiations for European Union (EU) membership. If a majority supports the proposal, the Icelandic government will resume talks with the EU. A recent opinion poll conducted on 25th shows that 51.3% of the respondents back the reopening of negotiations, while 48.7% are against it.

Prime Minister Kristinn Gottsther says the outcome of the poll is "very close" and predicts that the final result will be difficult to predict on Sunday. "Regardless of the outcome, the government will respect the result." If the "yes" side wins, Iceland will enter into formal negotiations with the EU's Executive Committee over 35 policy areas, including financial systems, fisheries, transportation networks, agricultural regulations, judicial and administrative systems, freedom of expression and religious freedom.

After the negotiations conclude, an accession treaty will be drafted between the EU's Executive Committee and the member governments. This treaty needs approval from all 27 EU member states and a separate referendum in Iceland to decide the final outcome. If the "no" side wins, the accession process will be halted. Iceland is already a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the European Economic Area (EEA), and the Schengen Agreement.

It joined the EU in 2009 after the global financial crisis when its national banks collapsed. However, negotiations were suspended in 2013 and officially ended in 2015 when a center-left coalition government in power. The most sensitive issue in EU accession talks for Iceland is fishing rights. Iceland relies on its rich fishing grounds in the North Atlantic as the backbone of its aquaculture industry and tightly controls the use of its territorial waters and catch quotas.

Joining the EU could bring up issues related to the joint fisheries management policy. This has sparked concerns about Iceland's ability to allow fishing by other EU member states' vessels in its waters and the management of overfished species like cod and haddock. Supporters argue that EU membership would strengthen Iceland's security in a geopolitically uncertain world and the possibility of adopting the euro would help stabilize exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation.

Opponents, on the other hand, argue that joining the European Economic Area (EEA) and the Schengen Agreement has already given Iceland many of the economic benefits of EU membership, and formal accession could undermine Iceland's sovereignty over lawmaking and resource management. The government originally planned to hold the vote next year, but moved it up after Donald Trump's repeated comments about securing Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory, raised concerns about Iceland's security and foreign relations.