Disappearing lakes, old photos and AI are helping scientists map Arctic permafrost thaw in near‑real time
Florida gets a lot of attention for its sinkholes, especially when they swallow cars and entire houses. But its sinkhole risk has nothing on Alaska's.
Sinkholes are common in Florida, but Alaska's permafrost poses a far greater risk. Permafrost—soil that remains frozen for at least two consecutive years—is abundant in Alaska and prone to melting as temperatures rise. This leads to ground collapse, causing damage to buildings, roads, and pipelines. Up-to-date maps of permafrost thaw are scarce, but scientists have developed an interactive website using AI to track changes in near-real time across the Arctic.
Thermokarst ponds, which form as permafrost thaws, serve as indicators of this process. These ponds appear as depressions that fill with water and can be spotted through satellite imagery. When a pond vanishes suddenly, it signals rapid permafrost thaw. Historical aerial photos and satellite images from the late 1940s and 1970s have helped map past Arctic landscapes, including locations of permafrost lakes. Using AI, scientists can analyze new images to detect signs of permafrost changes.
The Permafrost Discovery Gateway, a collaborative team, has mapped and monitors over 4 million lakes in the Arctic, including 70 million thermokarst ponds in Alaska. These maps help communities understand which areas have ice-rich permafrost, unsuitable for building, and which have less ice, indicating safer sites. Northwestern Alaska's Seward and Baldwin peninsulas have seen significant lake drainage in recent years, with nearly 200 lakes losing over a quarter of their area in the summer of 2018 alone.
Even though winter 2025-26 was relatively cold, the region continues to lose lake area, indicating permafrost thaw.
Not all changes in lakes are due to permafrost thaw. Seasonal variations in snowmelt, wildlife activity, and beaver dam construction can also cause lake alterations. With near-real-time data now available, researchers can better study permafrost thaw, and communities can receive timely insights for planning construction and identifying potential challenges.
Written by urgent.news from Phys.org's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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