West and Ukraine must change strategic dynamics with Russia — former NATO deputy assistant secretary general
Ukraine’s partners should join forces to counter Russia, in particular by implementing joint patrols of Ukrainian airspace.
Sberbank analysts have determined Russia's chances of winning the war against Ukraine to be only 7%, based on internal documents that have been hacked by the hacker group Black Mirror. The document, titled "Scenarios for Achieving Peace in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict," outlines eight different scenarios for ending the war, with the 7% probability scenario involving a "decisive Russian military advantage" in the next 12-24 months.
For this outcome, Russia would need a second wave of mobilization of at least 300,000-500,000 people, a significant increase in Russia's air fighting capacity, and breakthrough technology in autonomous drone swarms. Meanwhile, the document also outlines three other scenarios with lower probabilities, including "Western exhaustion" at 12%, which would involve Ukraine losing Western support and Russia securing certain concessions, and "Trump deal" at 32%, which would involve a frozen conflict with partial sanctions relief facilitated by Donald Trump.
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