Sberbank analysts put Russia’s chances of winning war against Ukraine at 7%, internal documents hacked by Black Mirror reveal

Sberbank analysts have determined Russia's chances of winning the war against Ukraine to be only 7%, based on internal documents that have been hacked by the hacker group Black Mirror. The document, titled "Scenarios for Achieving Peace in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict," outlines eight different scenarios for ending the war, with the 7% probability scenario involving a "decisive Russian military advantage" in the next 12-24 months.

For this outcome, Russia would need a second wave of mobilization of at least 300,000-500,000 people, a significant increase in Russia's air fighting capacity, and breakthrough technology in autonomous drone swarms. Meanwhile, the document also outlines three other scenarios with lower probabilities, including "Western exhaustion" at 12%, which would involve Ukraine losing Western support and Russia securing certain concessions, and "Trump deal" at 32%, which would involve a frozen conflict with partial sanctions relief facilitated by Donald Trump.