Thai Baht: Bullish bias against US Dollar faces BoT sensitivity – OCBC
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that Thai Baht (THB) has rallied to a two‑month high on softer US Dollar (USD), lower Oil prices, strong electronics exports and Gold-related flows.
The Thai Baht (THB) has gained momentum to a two-month high, driven by a softer US Dollar (USD), declining oil prices, robust electronics exports, and gold-related inflows, according to OCBC analysts Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong. However, as the USD/THB pair approaches oversold territory and the Bank of Thailand (BoT) meeting looms, policymakers may become sensitive to an overly strong currency, potentially curbing further gains in the near future.
While gold and electronics export strength provided some marginal support, caution is advised against overemphasizing the tech cycle's impact on THB strength. Focus for the week shifts to the BoT meeting, where softer domestic growth and policymakers' concern over excessive currency strength could limit the extent of additional appreciation.
The daily chart shows bearish momentum, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing oversold conditions, suggesting limited short-term consolidation. Resistance levels stand at 32.87 (100-day moving average) and 33.14 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2026 low to high), while support is found at 32.30/35 (200-day moving average and 50% Fibonacci retracement).
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