Geldpolitik: Insider – EZB steuert im September auf weitere Zinserhöhung zu

Frankfurt - According to insiders, the European Central Bank (EZB) is set to raise interest rates again during its September meeting, according to three people familiar with the process speaking to Reuters. The bank is ready to increase the key interest rate from 2.25% to 2.50% to curb the economic consequences of the Iran war, although further tightening is unlikely.

The EZB has ruled out comment on the matter. With inflation at nearly 3% and energy prices on the rise, central bankers believe a further rate hike is warranted. They also point to the strong performance of the Eurozone economy, which suggests that inflation containment efforts are not excessively hampering growth. Since the long-term inflation expectations are aligned with the EZB's two percent target, the board sees no need to hint at additional rate increases in September.

Financial markets, however, expect one or two more hikes. The central bank raised rates for the first time in nearly three years in June to prevent the war-induced surge in energy prices from spilling over to other parts of the economy. Another rate hike, already included in the EZB's economic forecasts from June, is meant to signal the bank's resolve to prevent a repeat of the massive inflation spike that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Currency managers hope for clearer guidance from the August inflation data and the updated economic forecasts presented at the September 9-10 meeting.