이란의 ‘결제 생태계’ 조이는 미국…성패는 역시 중국의 협조

Donald Trump's administration, after failing to topple Iran militarily in about six months, has broadened the conflict into an "economic war." Beyond existing sanctions targeting Iran's oil and financial sectors, the U.S. is pressuring third-country companies and financial institutions dealing with Iran. The core of this strategy is to isolate Iran's payment, intermediary, and transportation networks. However, it remains uncertain whether China, Iran's largest oil buyer, will be directly targeted.

On June 24, U.S. Treasury Secretary Sarah Harper declared the start of an "economic isolation operation" against Iran. She vowed to track and cut off the entities facilitating Iran's oil smuggling and evasion of sanctions. The U.S. Treasury expanded the scope of the second-round sanctions to include 5 sectors: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and maritime. The aim is to choke Iran's entire revenue and evasion network.

The U.S. has imposed sanctions on around 60 individuals, companies, and vessels involved in Iran's dealings with nuclear technology, cyber operations, and oil smuggling. The essence of this approach is not just targeting individual entities, but instead pressuring the entire payment, intermediary, and transportation network that enables Iran's trade. Iran has historically used ghost companies, exchange houses, and intermediaries to launder oil revenue.

The effectiveness of this strategy is disputed. While some argue it could cripple Iran's ability to profit from its oil exports, others believe it risks isolating China, Iran's primary oil importer. The economic impact of such a move on Chinese financial institutions, which handle a significant portion of Iran's oil transactions, could be severe. This could trigger a "domino effect," causing other countries to halt trade with Iran.