Lebanon must get ready as Israel and Turkey battle for influence in the Levant
Last week, Israeli aircraft bombed the Abu Al Duhur air base in Syria. The Israelis initially failed to admit responsibility for the attack, but to a number of observers it was very reminiscent of the attacks in April last year against the Hama and T4 air bases. At the time, these were interpreted as an Israeli effort to prevent the Turkish military from using the bases, amid the rising regional…
Lebanon finds itself in the crosshairs as Israel and Turkey vie for regional influence. Last week, Israeli aircraft bombed the Abu Al Duhur air base in Syria, leading to accusations from Turkey that Israel was attempting to destabilize the region. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned against a fait accompli in Turkey's neighboring countries, including Lebanon.
Lebanon's leadership is currently negotiating with Israel to achieve an Israeli withdrawal from the south and establish pilot zones for the Lebanese army to disarm and replace Hezbollah. However, Israel appears hesitant to relinquish control over the border area, instead increasing tensions and displacing thousands of Shiite Lebanese.
This displacement could further exacerbate sectarian tensions, potentially benefiting Israel by provoking fragmentation and destabilization. Turkey, wary of religious-ethnic fragmentation, supports efforts to strengthen the Lebanese army and avert a breakdown of the state. Lebanon must navigate these complex regional dynamics to avoid becoming a political football and seek stability through cooperation.
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