How Iran is readying for economic protests as Trump escalates pressure

Oil prices declined more than 3% on Tuesday (Aug 25) to a one-week low as investors ignored recent US sanctions against Iran, viewing economic pressure as less threatening to oil supplies than a potential military escalation. Brent crude futures fell US$3.59, or 3.9%, to US$88.58 per barrel, the lowest since Aug 14, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped US$2.65, or 3.1%, to US$82.36, the lowest since Aug 13.

The shift in tactics from a military confrontation to economic pressure has eased some anxiety in the oil market, with Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy, Ole Hansen, noting that the US sanctions were less severe than initially expected. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the measures on Monday, six months into the war, without specifying target countries or stating when penalties would commence.

The economic pressure campaign has prompted speculation of renewed US-Iran talks to resolve the conflict, which began with US and Israeli military strikes on Tehran in late February. Iran and Oman discussed a proposal for a temporary navigational corridor through the Strait of Hormuz and a plan to clear mines on Tuesday. However, analysts caution that the recent drop in oil prices could be an overreaction, with the market potentially spiking higher if Iran retaliates militarily against US installations in the Middle East.

Iran has threatened retaliation against the sanctions and expressed confidence that major trading partners would defy Washington's pressure campaign. China, the largest importer of Iranian oil, affirmed that its cooperation with Iran adheres to international law and should not be interfered with. Iran retains the ability to disrupt shipping, keeping a premium in oil prices, according to KCM's chief market analyst Tim Waterer.

A tanker was hit by an unknown projectile off Oman's coast, and only two tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, the lowest daily count since early May. Heightened concerns over the strait, which carries about one-fifth of global oil consumption, have led countries to draw down commercial and strategic oil reserves.