Eurozone: AfD surge raises policy uncertainty – ING

Carsten Brzeski of ING emphasizes that the surge of the AfD party in Germany's political landscape introduces considerable uncertainty for Eurozone policy. The AfD has previously advocated for the euro's exit and the pursuit of monetary sovereignty. However, a recent economic paper from the party suggests a more measured stance.

Despite this, the market remains uncertain about the economic policies that an AfD-led government would implement at the state or federal level. These electoral developments are only one part of a larger narrative that warrants increased attention from the market and the business community. The AfD is a diverse political party with a vaguely defined economic agenda.

Their 2025 federal manifesto, which is binding, includes a chapter demanding Germany's exit from the euro, a return to a national currency, gold repatriation, and monetization of Target-2 balances. Additionally, the manifesto called for higher pensions. A position paper on economic policy by the AfD's parliamentary group published earlier this year contains significant deletions compared to the 2025 manifesto.

The extent of economic policy potential under an AfD government remains unclear, even without considering the financing question.