Dylan Patel – Anthropic & OpenAI will have most of the world’s compute by 2028

Two of the world's leading artificial intelligence labs, Anthropic and OpenAI, are on track to control the vast majority of the planet's computational capacity by the year 2028, according to a recent discussion with Dylan Patel, the founder of SemiAnalysis. This shift in lab economics is rapidly unfolding, with the labs increasing their share of compute spending from tens of billions to hundreds of billions of dollars annually, ultimately projecting well beyond $2 trillion by the end of the decade.

With their revenue-generating capabilities now surpassing the marginal cost of compute, these companies can generate significant profits, moving from loss-making ventures to profitable entities. The transition from inference to training is a major factor in this change, as the labs monetize compute better and outcompete other players in the market.