Bitcoin enters ‘initial phase’ of new bull market, but $83K remains key: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant reports Bitcoin has entered an early phase of a new bull market following a 24% rally that has pushed key onchain and demand indicators into bullish territory. The Bull Score, a measure of market sentiment, has risen to 80 from 30 over the past week, its highest level since October 2025. Eight of the index's 10 underlying indicators are now flashing bullish.

Bitcoin has climbed above $80,000, but a weekly close above its 365-day moving average, currently around $83,000, is necessary to confirm the shift to a new bull market.

The recent rally has been driven by accelerating spot demand, with spot and futures demand growing together for the first time since early October 2025. According to LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger, the May 2026 high of $82,820 is the next crucial level for Bitcoin. A clear break above this level would reinforce the idea that a significant cycle low has been established, paving the way for further gains towards the $100,000 mark and the 2025 record high.

However, CryptoQuant has cautioned that the rally may be overheated in the short term due to rising trader profits, heavy profit-taking by whales, and a surge in Bitcoin deposits to exchanges. Traders' unrealized profit margins have reached 20.5%, the highest since June 2025. Bitcoin experienced a 30% decline after this metric reached 19% in early May, when BTC was near $82,000.

Short-term holder whales amassed approximately $1.2 billion in profits between August 20 and August 22, including a record $614 million on August 20 as Bitcoin traded around $78,000 to $79,000. Bitcoin exchange inflows have surged to roughly 53,000 BTC, their highest since June, indicating a potential shift of more coins onto trading platforms where they could be sold.