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Nate Silver Outlines Which Races Could Decide Control of Senate

Silver's forecast suggests the Texas Senate race is the most likely to be the tipping point that decides control of the Senate.

  • Democrats have 56.8% chance of winning Senate in 2026.
  • Texas Senate race between Talarico and Paxton is crucial.
  • Ohio, Maine, Michigan, and Iowa each have 12% chance to decide Senate.

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