A Pact Without Impact

The Mecca pact signed on August 7 between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey has been described as a Muslim, Islamic, Sunni, or Middle Eastern NATO. Although Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan referenced NATO in describing the pact's defense provisions, the agreement does not establish a central command system, pathways for greater interoperability, or clear obligations regarding defense spending and procurement. It also does not mention the use of nuclear weapons.

Despite these limitations, the pact builds upon years of defense cooperation between the three nations. Pakistan has trained personnel and deployed troops in Saudi Arabia since the mid-1960s, while Turkey has supplied weapons systems such as the MILGEM corvette ships and T129 ATAK helicopters. Moreover, Pakistan may serve as a conduit for transferring advanced weapons developed by China to Turkey.

However, the Mecca pact is susceptible to four problems that weaken alliances: chain-ganging, buck-passing, moral hazard, and free-riding. The pact is prone to all four types of these issues, but it does not address any of them. Chain-ganging occurs when one member draws other alliance members into conflicts unfavorable to their national interests.

In this case, Pakistan could potentially involve Turkey and Saudi Arabia in its long-standing rivalry with India. Turkey might also entice Pakistan and Saudi Arabia into its growing conflict with Israel over Syria. The ambiguity surrounding the pact's intended defense targets further exacerbates this risk.

Another alliance problem is buck-passing, wherein members avoid fulfilling their commitments, particularly in the face of threats from nonmembers. This phenomenon could arise if Iran attacked Saudi Arabia, as Turkey and Pakistan would likely find the costs of intervention outweighing the benefits. Furthermore, the domestic political equilibriums centered on the military's role in society and politics within these nations could be disturbed by a war, potentially destabilizing political stability in Pakistan, Turkish politics' extreme polarization, and Saudi Arabia's complex tribal loyalties within its military and National Guard.