Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say

Montréal - Four years ago, François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec party was so far ahead at the start of the provincial election campaign that the only question was which candidate would come in second. This time around, the outcome is far less predictable, as new leaders face significant issues, including renewed discussions about a referendum and threats from the U.S. regarding trade.

Christine Fréchette, who succeeded Legault as premier, is expected to launch the official campaign before the end of the week, leading Quebecers to the polls for a general election on October 5.

The Parti Québécois, led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has been the frontrunner in public opinion polls since 2023, and remains the favorite to form government, according to poll aggregator websites 338Canada and QC125. However, the party's lead has steadily decreased since it was on the verge of a landslide, largely due to support from francophone voters. "There is a favorite, but it's very close. So anything can happen," said Philippe Fournier, founder of the poll aggregator websites.

PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon faces a competitive field that includes the new leaders of the Coalition Avenir Québec, the Liberals, Québec solidaire, and the Conservatives, all vying for votes from the left and right. Fournier predicts that five parties could win seats in October, a scenario not seen since 1976. He notes that a divided vote could increase the chances of a minority result.

Each party leader faces unique challenges. St-Pierre Plamondon has pledged to hold a referendum during the first term of a Parti Québécois government, despite polls indicating that many voters have little interest in an independence vote. Fréchette must convince Quebecers that she can bring fresh ideas to the Coalition Avenir Québec party, which had become deeply unpopular by the time Legault resigned in January.

The Liberals, under Charles Milliard, must work to gain support among francophones and those living in Quebec's regions. Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime aims to secure his party's first seat in the legislature, while left-wing sovereigntist party Québec solidaire struggles to regain momentum after consistently ranking at the bottom of the polls.

A recent Léger/Le Journal poll from earlier in August found that 49% of respondents said they could change their minds by election day, suggesting a population that is disappointed with the current options. Danielle Pilette, a professor at Université du Québec à Montréal, believes the campaign will be crucial because voters are unhappy with the leaders and their positions.

She believes the campaign will center around issues such as healthcare access, the economy, regional development, and natural resources. The referendum, which Pilette describes as a "ball and chain" that could hinder the Parti Québécois's campaign, is also a significant factor to consider. Additionally, trade tensions with the United States pose challenges for all leaders, as none have emerged as champions on this issue.