The world inches toward catastrophic climate events: 'Bigger shocks are on the way'

In the opening scene of author Kim Stanley Robinson's novel "The Ministry for the Future," a heat wave combined with a power grid failure in India claimed the lives of 20 million people. This catastrophic event prompted nations to unite in their fight against climate change. Scientists have long predicted more intense extreme weather events, such as heat waves, storms, floods, and droughts.

However, what was once considered fiction is now viewed as a real and inevitable threat. While nobody can predict exactly when such disasters will occur, the ingredients for massive disturbances are increasingly present, and alarm is growing.

Climate scientist Daniel Swain cautions that people may dismiss warnings as exaggerations, echoing the "Boy Who Cried Wolf" fable. This "Boy Who Cried Wolf" problem is compounded by the fact that when extreme weather events occur, many people may be skeptical. Indeed, Earth has been heated by an excessive release of greenhouse gases, leading to a gradual rise in average global temperatures.

In 2025, the planet's temperature is 1.44 degrees Celsius (2.59 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than in the early 1800s. This increase results in more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

The United States has released the most greenhouse gases globally, contributing the most to climate change. Despite marking its 250th birthday, the country has not shown major government-led efforts to combat climate change. In fact, President Donald Trump has dismissed climate change as a "greatest con job ever," referring to climate policies as a "Green New Scam" and calling U.N. climate predictions "made by stupid people."

Numerous extreme weather events have already taken place around the world, such as Australia's Black Summer wildfires in 2019-2020, Pakistan's 2022 flooding, and Hurricanes Milton and Helene in 2024. These are just a few examples of the massive disasters we may face in the coming years. Even small disasters, like the Texas floods in 2023, and localized wildfires in Los Angeles, serve as reminders of the escalating risks.

Climate scientist Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick from Australian National University has had a "come to Jesus moment" realizing that constant extreme weather events will continue even if the world reaches net-zero emissions. Carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, and the damage caused will take centuries to reverse.

No country is fully prepared for major climate disasters, and the risks are continually evolving. While Robinson's novel was published in 2020, he might include a chapter on wildfires today, as they have become more destructive and frequent.

The challenge is that climate change is an uncomfortable topic, and people often avoid discussing it. Instead of taking action like drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions or preparing for extreme weather, many individuals and governments prefer to ignore the issue. Climate scientists must be cautious when discussing extreme events, as predicting when such disasters will occur is impossible.

However, modeling has improved over time, and the time between extreme events is decreasing. Swiss climatologist Sonia Seneviratne compares the risk of massive extreme events to smoking and lung cancer. People who smoke don't always develop lung cancer, but the chances are higher, and doctors must warn about the increased risk. Similarly, the risk of massive extreme events rises with every tenth of a degree of global warming.

If such an event were to occur, critics might accuse climate scientists of failing to warn the public, but they did.