Prabowo-Jokowi, A Fracturing Bond

The relationship between Indonesian President Joko Widodo, known as Jokowi, and his rival Prabowo Subianto is becoming increasingly strained. This rift could lead to healthier political competition in the future, benefiting civil society. Jokowi's ability to time his statements effectively has been on display in recent months. Following Prabowo's derogatory remarks towards journalists, Jokowi swiftly restored order at a State Palace celebration, seating Prabowo next to him. This act was a deliberate move to show unity and signal to Prabowo that he was no longer isolated.

Jokowi, an ambitious politician, hopes his son Gibran Rakabuming Raka will run alongside Prabowo again in the 2029 presidential election. However, Prabowo has distanced himself from Gibran due to Jokowi's controversial past. Prabowo also avoids involving Gibran in significant decisions and hasn't provided him with adequate resources.

If this rift between Jokowi and Prabowo persists, Indonesian politics may see a return of foul play in gaining power. Prabowo could potentially misuse state resources to secure election victories, while Jokowi's popularity among the lower-middle class might mask Prabowo's declining electability due to his reckless policies. This divide in the political landscape should foster more natural competition and serve as a check on the government's actions.

With Prabowo's strong support base, he has largely ignored public criticism, responding with hostility instead.

The rift could also lead to a redistribution of resources during the next election. It's no secret that an incumbent presidential candidate enjoys access to state facilities for campaigning. Jokowi, leveraging his influence, could help counterbalance this dominance. Prabowo's political maneuvers, which have primarily been aimed at bolstering his youngest son Kaesang Pangarep's political prospects in the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), have caused distress among village heads due to the misallocation of village funds for red-and-white cooperatives.

Civil society can capitalize on the strain between Jokowi and Prabowo to strengthen its position. These groups have been under immense pressure, combating Prabowo's harmful policies and facing intimidation and criminalization. Given Indonesia's vast size, it cannot be managed effectively by just two political figures. Mitigating the damage caused by Jokowi and Prabowo over the past decade is achievable if healthy competition emerges between them, allowing for checks and balances.