Myanmar: Why Rohingya refugees can't return
Nine years after the Rohingya were driven from Myanmar, claims of progress on refugee returns have revived talk of repatriation.
Myanmar s military-backed government is contemplating the repatriation of Rohingya refugees from camps in Bangladesh. The country's capital, Naypyidaw, recently claimed to have verified around 308,000 out of 820,000 submitted names as former residents, but will not return them until security improves in Rakhine State. However, analysts argue that large-scale, safe repatriation is now more distant than ever since 2017.
Myanmar is currently engaged in civil war, the military no longer controls most of Rakhine, and Rohingya citizens are denied citizenship. In August 2017, Myanmar's military launched operations in northern Rakhine after attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) on security posts. Over 750,000 Rohingya fled to Bangladesh, joining others displaced by earlier crackdowns.
Bangladesh now hosts approximately 1.2 million Rohingya refugees, mostly in Cox's Bazar district. Myanmar does not recognize Rohingya as an official ethnic group and has long referred to them as Bengalis. The International Court of Justice in The Hague is currently handling a genocide case against Myanmar brought by the West African nation of Gambia.
The 2021 coup in Myanmar triggered a nationwide civil war that continues even after a civilian government was formed earlier this year. Researcher Ronan Lee asserts that safe repatriation is impossible due to the ongoing civil war, economic collapse, and the military's continued control over the region. Moe Thuzar, head of the Myanmar Studies Program at Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, also concedes that repatriation is much less realistic today than at any point since 2017.
Even if repatriation were desired, the military no longer controls most of Rakhine, and many Rohingya villages have either been destroyed or occupied by different communities. UN investigators found evidence of genocidal intent by the military against Rohingya, and the United States has accused members of the military of genocide and crimes against humanity.
The worsening conditions in Bangladesh's Rohingya camps are pushing a traumatized population into desperate survival strategies, including dangerous sea voyages to Southeast Asian countries, gang violence, child marriage, child labor, and school dropout rates.
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