Let the climate wars begin

Climate change is intensifying the risk of floods, droughts and other natural disasters that can cause extreme stress, particularly in disadvantaged nations. When such occurrences coincide with existing political tensions, the probability of civil strife and warfare between nations escalates swiftly. Professor Daniel Mittermeier of the University of the German Armed Forces in Munich, along with his team, analyzed various data sets measuring the risk of climate-induced events and climate stress, then merged these with information on the risk of war and civil war worldwide.

This data gives rise to the Climate-Conflict-Vulnerability Index – a comprehensive database that maps regions with high conflict risk overlaid with regions facing high climate risk. The resulting map reveals the locations where the danger of open conflict exceeds 90%, such as the border between India and China, vast areas of Northern Mexico, and many coastal zones of Brazil.

Conversely, yellow zones signify regions with significant climate risk but minimal risk for armed conflicts, including West Africa, Northern China, and most parts of Indonesia and Malaysia. The blue zones, meanwhile, encompass areas where both armed conflict and climate risks surpass 90%, primarily encompassing Sub-Saharan Africa from the equator south, the Western Middle East (comprising Syria, Jordan, Israel, Iraq), and Pakistan.

Overall, climate risks and conflict risks exhibit a strong correlation, though this connection primarily operates in one direction. High-risk areas for armed conflict are generally located in regions with elevated climate risks, while high climate risk does not coincide with higher incidences of armed conflict. This suggests that climate change and escalating climate risks heighten the likelihood of civil and conventional wars, but the reverse scenario is not supported. Consequently, one might reasonably conclude that wars are increasingly becoming climate-related.