Intraguild predation, weather, and climate teleconnection patterns interact to determine an insect vital rate
Population dynamics and their component vital rates may be driven by weather, climate teleconnections between sea and air (e.g. ENSO), or biotic interactions. These drivers operate directly or indirectly and on different temporal scales. We used a Bayesian structural equation model to characterize effects among weather, climate, and incidental intraguild predation (IGP) on the butterfly…
An insect's vital rate, specifically the pre-diapause survival of the butterfly Euphydryas gillettii, is influenced by a complex interplay of weather, climate teleconnections, and intraguild predation (IGP). A Bayesian structural equation model was used to analyze an 18-year dataset and determine the effects of these factors on the butterfly's vital rate.
IGP emerged as a major determinant of pre-diapause survival, alongside direct and indirect effects of weather and spring climate teleconnections. The study reveals that climate effects can be reversed when mediated through IGP, highlighting the importance of sequential hypotheses to capture the cascading effects of abiotic factors via biotic interactions.
The debate on the roles of weather and climate teleconnections is addressed by disentangling their individual contributions. Ultimately, it is crucial to decompose vital rates into component rates in order to detect their drivers.
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