Distância entre Lula e Flávio encurta no segundo turno

A recent poll conducted by Nexus/BTG indicates that the gap between Lula and Flávio has narrowed significantly in the second round of the election, presenting a more closely contested race than previously shown by Datafolha. According to Nexus, both candidates are currently tied with Lula receiving 46% of the vote intentions and Flávio Bolsonaro at 45%.

Ronaldo Caiado trails with 42%, also within the margin of error. In the first round, Lula still led with 41%, followed by Flávio at 37%, Caiado with 5%, Renan Santos with 3%, and Romeu Zema also with 3%. The survey interviewed 2,006 voters by phone from August 21-23. In the previous survey from the same research, the difference between Lula and Flávio was just 3 percentage points, with Lula at 47% and Flávio at 44%.

Marcelo Tokarski, CEO of Nexus, stated that "Flávio has grown in the spontaneous vote in both the first and second rounds, while reducing rejection," while Lula still holds a slight advantage, and the election is very open. If the second round were held this weekend, Tokarski said it would be impossible to predict the winner. According to Tokarski's calculations, the probability of Lula finishing first in the first round, based on all the polls, was 100% weeks ago, and today it stands at 88%, meaning "Flávio has a small chance of coming out ahead in the first round."

The Nexus poll came three days after Datafolha also showed a closing of the gap between the two candidates. According to Datafolha, Lula now has 47% of the vote intentions in the second round against Flávio's 43%, within the 2-point margin of error. The previous Datafolha poll showed Lula with 48% and Flávio at the same 43%. Datafolha showed a larger difference against Caiado, with Lula at 47% of the vote intentions and Caiado at 40%.