China’s view of Trump’s America has changed from alarm to a shrug

China's perspective on US President Donald Trump's second term has evolved from deep concern in 2017 to a more measured reaction today. Four key points have emerged as consensus among Chinese scholars. Firstly, Trump is weakening America's alliance system, dismantling the house built by his first term. He has purged the civil service, stretched executive power, imposed taxes on allies and enemies alike, and reduced America's contribution to global public goods.

Secondly, hostility towards China is bipartisan within Washington, but Trump's approach comes with a cost. The 145% tariff on Chinese goods last year led to American retailers, farmers, and manufacturers complaining, inflation rising, and the White House eventually reaching a truce. This suggests Trump's tough stance is a negotiating tactic rather than a crusade, allowing room for managing the relationship.

Thirdly, pressure has proven to be a poor substitute for actual containment. The 2018 trade war initially alarmed Chinese firms, but by 2026, their mood had shifted. Sanctions have unexpectedly helped build what they were intended to prevent. Chinese chipmakers have increased their production of mature 28-nanometre technology, and homegrown chip-design software now holds a quarter of the domestic market.

Fourthly, the real competition lies in governance, and time is on China's side. American policy shifts with every election, while China's five-year plans tend to remain stable. America still leads in technology and firepower, but China believes policy continuity and industrial scale will gradually narrow the gap. China is not aiming to defeat the United States; instead, it seeks to improve its people's lives, achieve "common prosperity," and complete national rejuvenation.

China has successfully built a fully industrialised green energy system and is leading in AI deployment, government services, smart manufacturing, and smart cities. While America still has the deepest capital markets, best universities, and accumulated research, China aims to out-govern, out-produce, and outlast the US. Competition without confrontation, if Washington allows it, is what China is striving for.