China’s advanced chip supply to surge by 2035 despite equipment bottlenecks, Goldman says

China is poised to significantly reduce its deficit in advanced chips over the next decade, according to a report from US investment bank Goldman Sachs. The country's domestic foundries are expected to rapidly increase production of 7-nanometre and below advanced process wafers, with a compound annual growth rate of 46 percent between 2025 and 2035.

This growth would narrow the gap between domestic supply and demand, which is projected to drop from 92 percent in 2025 to 34 percent by 2035. By then, China's advanced-node wafer supply is anticipated to reach 410,000 wafers per month, compared to demand of 619,000 wafers. This improvement is attributed to aggressive capacity expansion at SMIC, China's largest contract chipmaker, as well as rising production yields.

SMIC is expected to add 30,000 to 50,000 advanced-node wafers per month from 2026 to 2031, and another 20,000 wafers per month annually through 2035. Yield improvements are also expected, rising from 23 percent in 2026 to 50 percent in 2030 and 75 percent by 2035. While Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) leads the world in advanced chip production with yields exceeding 90 percent, China aims to achieve semiconductor independence.

Despite US-led export controls on advanced chipmaking equipment, SMIC successfully produced a 7nm chip for Huawei in 2023. China's chip self-sufficiency rate reached about 70 percent in June in terms of production volume, up from 38 percent in January 2010. The push for domestic chipmaking is expected to spur another wave of semiconductor investment in China, with the country's chip capital expenditure forecast to grow in double digits annually through 2030, reaching US$82 billion.