China’s advanced chip supply to surge by 2035 despite equipment bottlenecks, Goldman says

China is projected to significantly increase its production of advanced chips over the next decade, despite obstacles in equipment and lithography, according to Goldman Sachs, a US investment bank. The supply of wafers produced using 7-nanometre and lower advanced processes is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 46 percent from 2025 to 2035.

This growth outpaces the 17 percent anticipated in domestic demand, narrowing the gap between supply and demand from 92 percent in 2025 to 34 percent by 2035. By that time, China's advanced-node wafer supply is expected to reach 410,000 wafers per month, compared with 619,000 wafers in demand. This increased production is driven by SMIC's capacity expansion and improved production yields, which are projected to grow from 23 percent in 2026 to 75 percent by 2035.

Despite US-led export controls on advanced chipmaking equipment, SMIC managed to produce a 7nm chip for Huawei in 2023, demonstrating China's determination to achieve full semiconductor independence. China's chip self-sufficiency rate increased to about 70 percent in June 2023, up from 38 percent in January 2010, although the gap is wider when measured by value.

Goldman Sachs anticipates a surge in semiconductor capital expenditure in China, projected to grow by double digits annually through 2030, reaching US$82 billion. This investment boom is also expanding the market for home-grown equipment suppliers, with China's wafer fabrication equipment market expected to reach US$53 billion in 2027, with local firms accounting for 38 percent by value in 2028, up from 26 percent last year.

However, the most critical missing link in China's domestic equipment ecosystem is lithography, as the country still relies on Dutch supplier ASML for most of its advanced DUV lithography machines and has no access to ASML's cutting-edge EUV machines.