Turbulenzen bei US-Staatsanleihen haben auch für Anleger in der Schweiz Konsequenzen

Turbulent times are affecting U.S. Treasury bonds, with consequences for Swiss investors as well. On Wednesday morning, Scott Bessent sought to send a clear message by crossing the milestone of $40 trillion in U.S. government debt, a figure marked by 13 zeros. The U.S. Treasury Secretary announced that twice as many long-term government bonds would be repurchased compared to previous practices.

The surprise worked, causing the yields on U.S. government bonds to drop. However, the impact only lasted two days as the 30-year U.S. government bonds have since returned to an unattractive yield of 5.28%. Market observers see Bessent's intervention, a former hedge fund manager, as a sign of desperation rather than strength, as he fails to lower long-term interest rates despite declaring it a goal of the Treasury.

Bessent may not have the upper hand as long as the U.S. continues waging war in the Persian Gulf, arbitrarily imposing tariffs, and maintaining record-high budget deficits of 6%. Or perhaps he will resort to larger weapons, as Swiss gold fund provider Konwave suggests that a more extensive phase of interventions in the U.S. bond market could be on the horizon.

They predict a structurally higher inflation in the coming years. Other highly indebted developed countries, such as Japan, the United Kingdom, or France, now have to pay significantly more for their debts than a few months ago.

Experts believe that central banks may deviate from their official inflation targets in the long term, although they won't admit it openly. In the U.S., inflation has been above 2% since February 2021, indicating that certain central banks are intentionally accepting higher inflation. Removing mountains of debt through inflation may be the only realistic way out of this crisis and is also the simplest politically.

This approach could lead to increased turbulence, as higher inflation and interest rates may cause simultaneous problems for stocks, bonds, and other assets, leaving few safe havens in the short term. Therefore, it's crucial not to panic and avoid selling assets that might not experience the full downward movement. Past experiences show that investors often miss the right entry point.

Swiss investors might find refuge in Frankfurt securities, as well as in domestic real estate and gold. These assets have already seen a significant increase this week, with gold and Bitcoin experiencing notable gains. However, Bitcoin remains a minority opinion.

Sachwerte, such as gold and silver, real estate, and stocks of companies with solid balance sheets and dividends, offer the best protection. Swiss financial experts advise maintaining a home bias, as the Swiss franc is currently appreciating faster than other currencies due to the large interest rate difference between the franc and other currencies.

If major turbulence occurs, the franc could become a safe haven and gain significant value. Many Swiss asset managers have already abandoned hedging against foreign currencies, as it has become too expensive. Instead, they opt for more Swiss investments, such as the SMI index, which offers a dividend yield of around 3%, compared to higher yields in dividend funds.