Pakistan’s rise as a regional mediator could reshape Middle East diplomacy - analysis

Pakistan is increasingly emerging as a significant diplomatic player in the Middle East. Recently, Islamabad has strengthened its ties with Syria, prepared for high-level talks with Iran, and maintained a role as a potential mediator between Tehran and Washington. Islamabad appears to be regaining its footing in regional diplomacy after a period of relative inactivity over the past two months.

The country aims to gain influence in shaping the region's future, a goal that became evident in the previous year when the United States and Israel carried out a military campaign against Iran.

The timing of Pakistan's renewed diplomatic efforts is crucial, given the current transition in the Middle East following the US and Israeli military campaign against Iran that began in late February. While there is a memorandum of understanding in place, tensions continue to rise as both Iran and the US intensify their respective pressures. Iran's threat level is escalating, and the US is simultaneously emphasizing new economic measures.

According to a report by Rudaw, Pakistan's Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, is scheduled to visit Tehran as part of Pakistan's efforts to promote regional stability. Iran's Foreign Ministry claimed the visit aims to strengthen cooperation and uphold Pakistan's "good offices" in promoting peace and security. This visit followed a telephone conversation between Munir and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who discussed ongoing diplomatic efforts.

Pakistan's role as a mediator has evolved over the past several months. Rudaw noted that Islamabad successfully mediated between Iran and the United States after the outbreak of fighting this year, contributing to negotiations that resulted in a memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington. Although tensions remain, Pakistan has become a country capable of maintaining dialogue with both sides.

This role may become even more pivotal as Washington escalates economic pressure on Tehran through new sanctions, which are expected to further tighten restrictions on Iran's economy and intensify pressure on countries that maintain commercial ties with Tehran.

In response to these economic pressures, Iran has issued new threats. Moheen Rezai, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, warned neighboring countries against cooperating with the American sanctions campaign. Rezai stated that if the economic blockade persists, Iran would prevent Gulf oil exports from leaving the region.

He also mentioned that Iran could target American economic interests if the pressure continues and insisted that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until Washington alters its policies. Iran is displaying its continued defiance.

These shifting dynamics highlight the evolving nature of the US-Iran confrontation. Earlier phases focused on military conflict, including missile strikes, drone attacks, and military operations. Now, competition takes place through sanctions, maritime pressure, and competing trade routes. Each side seeks to gauge the other's willingness to back down, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining crucial for global oil shipments.

Pakistan's Foreign Minister's visit to Syria underscores Islamabad's expanding regional partnerships, positioning the country alongside Saudi Arabia and Turkey as one of Syria's strategic allies. This could potentially lead to Syria joining an alliance of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, a development that may draw criticism in Israel, where tensions with Turkey are mounting.