Iran Unleashed

For many years, Iran found itself at a disadvantage in the Middle East, overshadowed by a powerful American superpower, the nuclear-armed and militarily superior Israel, and significant regional actors like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, who were aligned with the United States. However, Iran recently found itself in a new position of power, having withstood attacks from its adversaries with the help of the United States.

This shift has resulted in the Middle East and Persian Gulf power structures being reconfigured, with Iran now being the dominant force in the region. Neighboring countries have begun to adjust to this new reality, and other powers will follow suit. For years, Iran was limited in its actions, but now, it has unleashed a new level of influence.

Contrary to the belief that a weak and impoverished Iran would eventually have to make concessions to American power, Iran has remained resilient. In February, the Trump administration renewed its "maximum pressure" campaign of international sanctions, further damaging Iran's struggling economy. In June, Israel and the United States launched a 12-day war to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities, resulting in significant damage to Iran's program and revealing the country's vulnerability to Israeli and American strikes.

Despite these setbacks, Iran has continued to survive and not made any concessions. The regime's survival can be attributed to the vulnerability of Iran's neighbors, which Iran exposed in March when it retaliated against Qatar's largest liquefied-natural-gas facility. This attack demonstrated that while Iran couldn't defeat the United States in an air war, it could inflict substantial damage on the Gulf's oil and gas infrastructure, potentially causing an economic crisis worldwide.

The Gulf States and the United States recognized this, leading to a halt in attacks on Iranian energy targets without extracting any concessions from Iran. Trump's repeated threats to launch another massive attack against Iran were met with Iranian threats, warnings from Gulf States, and ultimately, Trump's decision to avoid further escalation due to concerns about the potential economic catastrophe.

The memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed in June by the United States and Iran marked a clear Iranian victory, as it allowed Iran to determine the administration of the Strait of Hormuz, which was previously under U.S. control. Although the MOU did not return to the prewar status quo, it recognized Iran as the sole actor other than Oman in managing the strait's administration, with Iran even having the ability to charge nations for safe passage after 60 days.

The MOU reflected Iran's confidence that America would eventually retreat from the conflict, as it had no choice but to accept the U.S. concessions.