ANC at 18%: Former DA man Gareth van Onselen's hidden hand behind the polls
A Johannesburg poll putting ANC support at 18% has prompted scrutiny of the organisations behind it, their political links and whether the methodology supports such a dramatic decline.
A new poll has revealed that the African National Congress (ANC) holds only 18% support in Johannesburg, a significant drop from previous figures. The poll, commissioned by the Social Research Foundation (SRF) and conducted by Victory Research, shows the Democratic Alliance (DA) at 42% and the MK Party at 15%. The ANC's support has declined by 12 percentage points since the last Johannesburg poll, which showed the party with 30% support.
Nationally, the ANC's support stands at 34%, down from about 40% in the first quarter of the year, while the DA is at 27%, the MK Party at 15% and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 7%. The ANC's decline has seen it drop to third place in eThekwini, behind the MK Party and DA, with support below 30% in Tshwane, though still below the DA's support.
The poll, conducted among 504 Johannesburg respondents from July 8 to 31, uses a 4.4% margin of error at a 95% confidence level. The turnout level for the Johannesburg scenario is assumed to be 53%, which has raised questions about how the figures should be interpreted. Victory Research CEO Gareth van Onselen confirmed that the SRF commissioned the survey, revealing a relationship between the two organizations as the SRF is a client of Victory Research.
This relationship has drawn attention to potential conflicts of interest, especially considering van der Berg's role with the DA as its head of research. Despite this, Van Onselen has dismissed concerns over his past roles with the DA and their impact on the independence of the latest research. The SRF, founded by political analyst Frans Cronje, has its own political background, adding to the debate surrounding the latest poll.
While some analysts, like Professor Theo Neethling, consider van Onselen a reliable polling analyst, others caution against treating the Johannesburg figure as a prediction of the November election result. They emphasize that turnout assumptions, sampling, weighting, and other factors play a significant role in determining the accuracy of the poll results.
Written by urgent.news from IOL's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
