Is Alphabet’s Search Risk Really Priced In? Stress-Testing Rosenblatt’s $410 Thesis

Wall Street appears to have moved past concerns about Alphabet's (GOOGL) search business being overshadowed by AI chatbots, but a thorough assessment of the risk is warranted. Google maintains a dominant 90% share of the search market, yet there is still a potential threat as users increasingly rely on AI-generated assistance for information.

In response, Google has revamped its search interface for the first time in 25 years, featuring an AI Mode button to facilitate this shift. The company's second-quarter report, however, was overshadowed by other significant developments, such as a $99 billion paper gain on equity stakes and increased capital spending plans.

In the second quarter, Google Search and other revenue grew by 17% year-over-year to $63.3 billion, falling short of the anticipated 19% growth and behind Wall Street's expectations of $63.4 billion. While this growth rate is commendable, it does not necessarily indicate a slowdown in the search sector. Instead, the focus should be on the future trajectory of the business.

Google's AI overviews, AI Mode, and Gemini have been instrumental in expanding the scope of queries that its ecosystem can handle. Gemini's user base has reached an impressive 1 billion monthly active users, making it the fastest-growing product in Google's history.

Google's Cloud division experienced remarkable growth, with revenue surging 82% year-over-year to $24.8 billion and operating income tripling from $2.8 billion to $8.8 billion. This impressive performance suggests that Google's Cloud segment will likely sustain its momentum and contribute to future multiple expansions. Rosenblatt's optimism about Cloud's role in driving sustained growth implies that capacity expansion and the monetization of TPUs beyond 2027 could further bolster operating profits.

Consequently, the firm perceives cloud deceleration as a more significant risk than potential future challenges in the search sector.

According to Insider Monkey's database, 265 hedge fund investors held Alphabet stock at the end of Q1, a decrease from 288 in the previous quarter. However, institutional interest in the company continues, with Berkshire Hathaway owning about 78.8 million shares worth $28.2 billion, and Fisher Asset Management and Arrowstreet Capital also maintaining substantial positions.

While Alphabet is undoubtedly positioned as a leading hyperscaler in the AI cycle, questioning the notion that search risk has been adequately priced in seems warranted. Although GOOGL is regarded as an attractive investment, the analysis suggests that other AI stocks may offer greater upside potential with reduced downside risk.

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