BN’s kingmaker status remains doubtful in Melaka, say analysts

Analysts are uncertain about Barisan Nasional (BN) being a potential "kingmaker" in the upcoming Melaka state election, as its decision to consider cooperation with other parties indicates a lack of confidence in winning on its own. BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi stated that the coalition will evaluate the local political situation before deciding on any possible collaboration, which will also factor into a national-level decision.

However, other analysts argue that this very negotiation process casts doubt on BN's strength as a kingmaker, as a confident and strong kingmaker would usually attract other parties. BN's performance in the 2021 and 2022 elections has been mixed, winning 21 out of 28 state seats but failing to secure any parliamentary seats in 2022.

This has led some analysts to believe that BN's position in Melaka is uncertain, with the 2021 election result showing a significant drop compared to 2022. Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional have both won three parliamentary seats each. BN's main competitor, Perikatan Nasional, has an advantage in drawing Malay voter support, which could negatively impact BN's chances.

Despite this, BN appears to be seeking a partner for cooperation, with the current state chief minister of Melaka, Ab Rauf Yusoh, tasked with initiating negotiations. However, BN may need to exercise caution and avoid overconfidence, as a lack of agreement with any party could lead to a three-way contest that ultimately harms BN's prospects.