Why this El Niño will be the largest in living memory
A strengthening El Niño may surpass any seen since the 19th century and will usher in another record hot year or two
A powerful El Niño phenomenon may establish itself as the strongest on record since the 19th century, potentially leading to two record-breaking hot years in 2026 and possibly 2027, according to the U.K. Met Office. This superintense El Niño, which began earlier this year, has been steadily intensifying, surpassing any recorded in living memory.
El Niño is a natural climate cycle characterized by the shifting of a warm water mass in the Pacific Ocean, resulting in elevated sea surface temperatures and altered weather patterns across the globe. This particular El Niño is expected to peak later in the year, making it a potentially major event. Forecasters predict that this El Niño will cause global temperatures to soar by around three degrees Celsius above normal, a level considered "Super El Niño."
If this prediction holds, 2026 could stand out as a record-breaking year in terms of climate impacts. The recent strongest El Niños occurred in the late 1970s, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016. The strong El Niño has already contributed to heavy rainfall in Hawaii and reduced rainfall from the Indian monsoon. This intense El Niño could lead 2026 to become the hottest year on record, though 2027 might ultimately surpass it due to the delayed effects of El Niño's heat release.
Written by urgent.news from Scientific American's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
