Why oil markets are ignoring Trump's "truths"
Data: RollCall , Financial Modeling Prep; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals Oil price changes in response to President Trump's social media posts about the Iran war have been shrinking over time, an Axios analysis shows. Why it matters: Oil price changes ripple throughout the U.S. and global economies, and the conflict has brought unprecedented supply disruption. Traders weigh whether his comments…
An Axios analysis reveals that President Trump's social media posts about the Iran war have been having diminishing effects on oil prices over time. This trend is evident in the shrinking changes in oil prices in response to his tweets. The reason behind this diminishing impact is that traders are increasingly skeptical of the information provided in Trump's posts, as they do not align with the actual ground reality, according to oil analyst Ben Cahill.
Initially, there was a great deal of uncertainty and an information vacuum, causing the market to overreact to his statements. However, the market has now tuned out these social media posts as they no longer reflect the reality on the ground. The average five-minute change in the oil futures price, after Trump's posts, was 0.2%, while in the immediate aftermath, it spiked to an average of 0.73%.
This effect, however, is becoming less pronounced. As news of the Iran war continues to evolve, Trump's ability to influence oil markets through social media is waning, which has significant political implications for the upcoming midterm elections.
Written by urgent.news from Axios's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
