Iranian Oil Supply to China Is Rapidly Drying Up

Iranian crude oil shipments to Chinese buyers have largely ceased due to the reinstated U.S. blockade on Iran's oil exports, indicating that Chinese independent refiners, the primary purchasers, may need to seek alternative sources by next month, according to Kpler data. A total of approximately 83 million barrels of Iranian crude outside the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman remain, contrasted with over 100 million barrels prior to the blockade reinstatement in mid-July following the collapse of U.S.-Iran talks.

Around 40 million barrels, or half of the current supply, are stored offshore Singapore at the Eastern Outer Port Limits anchorage. Of these 40 million barrels, only two cargoes, totalling 4 million barrels, are unaccounted for and likely unsold. This scarcity suggests that buyers might face a limited supply of Iranian oil in late September, given the absence of new shipments through the U.S. blockade.

Consequently, the price of Iranian Light crude has surged by $3.50 over ICE Brent. The U.S. blockade has notably impeded Iranian exports from Kharg Island, the primary export terminal responsible for handling 90% of shipments. Additionally, the U.S. President's announcement of the "most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country" raises concerns about potential further economic repercussions for countries aiding Iran, particularly China, Iran's largest customer, which has been importing over 90% of sanctioned Iranian oil in recent years.

Analysts predict that Chinese independent refiners may need to augment purchases of alternative crude supplies, such as Russian Urals crude or fuel oil, to avoid disruptions in throughput when inventories dwindle in October.