Why millions of people around the world will contract measles in 2026

In 2026, the World Health Organization predicts approximately 11 million people will contract measles, primarily in Africa and Asia, with numerous outbreaks occurring across the Americas and Europe. Measles has no cure, but vaccines are proven to be safe and effective at preventing the disease. However, unvaccinated individuals who contract measles face serious risks such as deafness, blindness, and death, especially for those who are malnourished and lack access to adequate medical care.

The main driver of measles epidemics globally is a decline in vaccination rates. While the vast majority of parents worldwide want to protect their children from preventable infectious diseases, many lower-income countries struggle with insufficient vaccine supply. To achieve herd immunity—where the vaccination rate exceeds 95% to protect a community from outbreaks—measles vaccines require two doses for optimal effectiveness.

High-income countries typically maintain vaccination rates near the 95% target, whereas lower-income countries often see rates below 80% for one dose and 70% for two doses. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated vaccine access issues, with millions of children in low- and middle-income countries remaining unvaccinated. Measles outbreaks have been reported in conflict zones like Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen, as well as peaceful nations such as the Maldives and Zambia, with surging cases in India.

Bangladesh has experienced an alarming increase in measles cases this year, with over 900 deaths reported. The country's challenges stem from political instability, vaccine shortages, and reliance on UNICEF and Gavi for vaccine procurement. Recent budget cuts to Gavi's funding have hindered its ability to subsidize vaccine purchases, leaving Bangladesh short of needed vaccines.

Although a January 2026 vaccination campaign vaccinated over a million Bangladeshi children, vaccination rates remain far below the critical 95% threshold required to prevent widespread outbreaks.