Why millions of people around the world will contract measles in 2026

In 2026, it is estimated that nearly 11 million people worldwide will contract measles, with the majority of cases occurring in Africa and Asia. The World Health Organization warns that the risk of serious complications, including deafness, blindness, and death, is particularly high for unvaccinated individuals, especially those who are already undernourished and lack access to medical care.

The primary driver of measles outbreaks is low vaccination rates. In low-income countries, the supply of vaccines often falls short of demand, creating a situation where less than 95% of the population is vaccinated, a threshold necessary to achieve "herd immunity." While high-income countries generally maintain vaccination rates close to the 95% target, many low- and middle-income countries struggle, with only about 80% of young children receiving one dose and 70% receiving two doses of the measles vaccine.

The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated vaccine shortages and disrupted supply chains, leaving millions of children in low-income countries without routine vaccinations. These children, known as "zero-dose children," have not received any recommended vaccines. In 2026, measles outbreaks are already being reported in countries experiencing armed conflict or refugee crises, such as Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen.

Additionally, peaceful countries like Maldives and Zambia are also witnessing surging cases, including India.

Bangladesh has seen the highest number of measles cases this year, with over 900 fatalities. The country faced unique challenges in procuring vaccines, including a political upheaval that led to vaccine shortages in 2024 and 2025. The interim government's decision to shift vaccine procurement to a competitive bidding process further complicated the situation.

Despite resuming collaboration with UNICEF, Bangladesh's efforts are hampered by reduced funding from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, which has faced funding cuts and a shrinking budget for subsidizing vaccine purchases. As a result, if Gavi's budget is not replenished, countries like Bangladesh will struggle to acquire the necessary vaccines to prevent measles outbreaks.