United Kingdom: Resilient growth outlook – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank Research, led by Sanjay Raja and Maui Brennan, highlights the United Kingdom (UK) economy’s surprising resilience to the Iran-related energy shock in 2026. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.6% q-o-q in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2, making the UK the fastest-growing G7 economy.
Deutsche Bank Research has revealed the United Kingdom's (UK) economy's impressive resilience amid the Iran-related energy shock in 2026. GDP experienced a q-o-q growth of 0.6% in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2, making the UK the fastest-growing G7 economy. Softer inflation, robust household spending, strong business investment, and stockpiling contributed to Deutsche Bank's projection that 2026 GDP could exceed the 1.1% forecast.
However, after a strong Q1-26 performance, Q2-26 growth still surpassed expectations with an increase of 0.4% q-o-q. The UK now stands as the fastest-growing economy in the G7 so far this year, with an annualized growth rate of 2%. Despite the potential upside risks, the recent growth surge raises questions about the UK's resilient economy amidst the Iran energy shock.
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