UN holds second informal poll for next leader

The United Nations Security Council is set to hold a second informal poll on Friday to determine the preferences of its 15 members for the next Secretary-General. Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan currently leads the field after the first vote last month. Other contenders include Argentina's Rafael Grossi, Michelle Bachelet from Chile, Ecuador's Maria Fernanda Espinosa, Guyana's Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Uganda's Olara Otunnu, and Senegal's Macky Sall.

Ecuador's Ivonne A-Baki recently announced her candidacy to succeed outgoing Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who will step down at the end of 2026. The second straw poll aims to provide a clearer picture of the competitive landscape. Diplomats anticipate shifts in the vote distribution compared to the initial poll, with the five veto-wielding nations - Britain, China, France, Russia, and the United States - potentially waiting to reveal their preferences.

It is unlikely that any single candidate will secure a decisive lead in the second poll. Russia's ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, stated that he wouldn't rule out the possibility of new candidates emerging if there's a deadlock. For a candidate to be confirmed, they must secure nine votes from the 15 members, while simultaneously evading a veto from the five major powers. Once a candidate achieves these requirements, their name will be forwarded to the General Assembly for final approval.

The Security Council has employed this informal mechanism since the 1980s to overcome veto-related deadlocks. The process involves members anonymously labeling each candidate as "encourage," "discourage," or "no opinion." Those with no support have the opportunity to withdraw from the race. The ballots of the five permanent members will be distinguishable from the rest after a certain number of votes, allowing observers to identify potential vetoes without knowing the identity of the blackballer.

Traditionally, the top UN job should rotate among different regions, with Latin America set to hold the role this time. Several Latin American candidates are vying for the position, including Sall and Otunnu, both from Africa.